（一）
World economy
The jobs crisis 失业危机 It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse 不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用
Illustration by Belle Mellor
NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.
再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫，还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠于这些计划，至少发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。
Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?
即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自 1930 年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易 80 年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的恶魇再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？
Join the queue 加入失业队伍
In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.
富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从 07 年 12 月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢出了 440 万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了 60 万份。二月的失业率跃升至 8.1%，是 25 年来的最高数字。比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。
But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.
然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失业率尚低，但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。
In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.
在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们有更加严格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到 2010 年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过 10%。
In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of
workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.
发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约 5300 万人降到极端贫困线以下。
Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.
政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自 1970 年代和 1980 年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。
Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.
各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足劳工薪资。
These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.
这些措施在一定时限内是合理的：因为在短期内，政府需要尽全力维持需求。只是哎呀，就业危机不大可能只在短期内存在。即便经济衰退很快结束（而且几乎不可能发生），引起这场危机的阴云——资金短缺和过度借贷——将在接下来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年。更有甚者，不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员，很多昔日的就业岗位会一去不复返。人们将被迫告别现有职位，转行进入新岗位。
A difficult dance 艰难的舞步
Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.
在接下来的几年中，政治家们不得不做出一个 180 度的艰难政策转变：因为从长远来看，他们需要一个灵活的劳动力市场。这意味着废除工作补贴计划，去除受保护劳工的特权，以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组。像日本这样具有双层劳动力结构的国家，大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障，而被娇生惯养的上层员工却能享受到多重保护。这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除。
The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.
这些措施可以委婉地概括为“灵活性”措施。更直白的事实是，现有工作越容易被废弃，新工作就越容易被创造。眼下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累。随着时间推移，用在保留
人员旧岗位的指出需要削减，取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支。各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动力市场。这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划，但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤：因为如果他们不这样做，增长将被遏制。
However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight millions of lives for years. The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades.
然而，不论政府政策制定的多么完美，失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增。不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷于困境。当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年。
（二）
China"s trade
Surplus to requirements 顺差的需要
Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?
为什么中国的出口大幅下降时，贸易顺差却在增长？
THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?
本周，修正后的数字显示中国在 2007 年已经超越德国成为世界第三大经济体。在去年初，中国也目标成为世界上最大的出口国，但是年末数月出口的大幅下落意味着他们仍然排在德国之后。按照美元来计算，中国的出口额在第四季度下降了 13%，比一年前同期少了 3%。尽管如此，中国的贸易顺差在第四季度却以全年增速上升到创纪录的 4570 亿美元，比 2007 年同期增长了 50%。这其中到底有何玄机？
In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).
2008 年上半年，中国的贸易顺差确实出现了缩水（见表）。但是自那以后，尽管出口大跌，但是进口跌的更惨——到 12 月时，12 个月内下跌了 21%。进出口双双下滑由于受到全球信贷停滞影响而加剧。这是因为信用冻结导致全世界的公司更加难以获得信用证从而保证支付。出口同样也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉价的原油和商品价格，以及原材料和用于出口产品的部件进口（占到进口总量的 50%以上）表现疲软。
But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.
但是关于中国进口下降的一个更令人忧虑的原因是：中国的国内需求减小。消费支出和生产投资目前的收缩尚且适当，但是建筑业作为进口原材料的使用大户也出现了急剧下滑。
With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.
随着全球大部分地区陷入衰退，中国的出口今年将继续下滑。野村证券预测的下滑是 6%，为 25 年来的首次下滑。另一方面，进口预计将增长。到年中时，政府计划的基础设施投入大幅增长将会推动原材料和机械进口。这样的话，中国 2009 年的贸易顺差将会缩水。
The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.
出口剧减加上随之而来的中国南方的失业会导致政府考虑人民币贬值。但这将不仅激起美国新政府的保护主义反弹，对生产者也帮助甚小。中国的问题是在于疲软的国外需求，而不是竞争力。支持中国经济乃至帮助全球贸易摆脱不平衡的方法，是加强内需。
One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.
本周的一个好消息是：随着减息和政府去除信贷限制，银行信贷总额到 12 月的 12 个月中从去年夏天的 14%猛增 19%。中国也许是最近几个月内世界大经济体中唯一出现信贷增长加速的地方。如果增速持续，它将促进内需支出。
China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.
中国决不能再依赖出口。如果全球贸易持续下降，成为世界最大的出口国亦将无益。
（三）
China"s stimulus
Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？
China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work
中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效
“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?
中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。”随着世界经济陷入 70 年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值 12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占 GDP 的 3%。难道去年十一月公布的 4 亿元用于基础设施建设的措施——相当于 GDP 的 14%——仅仅是在忽悠？
Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.
北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。
In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.
然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府实施的。瑞银的陶旺（音）预计，新的基础设施建设、减税、消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到 GDP3%的 09 年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到 GDP 的 4%。
Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is
the quickest way to boost domestic demand.
中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长 30%，铁路投资增长了 3 倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最立竿见影的方式。
What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.
那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样？从去年年初开始，中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半。新的统计数字显示，到二月，消费品价格较去年下降了 1.6%，从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩。这似乎意味着中国在提高需求方面做的尚且不够。但其实，这并不是真正的通货紧缩。真正的通缩情况下，货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而萎缩。去年，银行借贷增长了 24%。对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生。中国作为世界上少有的几个国家，其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升——尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的。
China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.
中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划，还通过让人民币在过去 12 个月内升值 18%（贸易加权考虑在内），部分促进了世界货币经济增长。
The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.
真正的问题是：中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大？到今年二月，年出口额下降远超预期，达 26%，并且可能继续下挫。工业生产 12 个月增幅在 09 年头两个月已将至 3.8%，零售业增长放缓至 15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外，汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春（音）认为，经济刺激方案能够实现 8%的年度经济增长。但是政府已经明确表示，如果经济持续疲软，将会提供另外的财政提振方案。
Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.
这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到 8%，但如果全球需求持续悲观，增速便难以维持。对于中国而言，出口转内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示，将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款，使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则，即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。
（四）
The economy"s stumble 经济的绊足
Air pocket or second dip? 气囊保护还是二次沦陷？
Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition
A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9 月经济大跌，新刺激方案提上日程
AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures. Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%. Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired. Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.
根据最新统计数据，从春季开始一路高歌猛进的美国经济在 9 月大幅下跌。非农业职位减少了 26.3 万个，降幅较 8 月增加了 6.2 万个，失业率升至 9.8%，增幅 0.1%。汽车销量在联邦“旧车换现金”计划结束后陡降。制造业略有放缓。
All this is probably an air pocket; overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow. Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery. But it is taking a painfully long time. “We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released. To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought. That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce. Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948.
这一切或许是如“气囊”一般的保护性反应；今年第三季度，经济总量确已开始上升，就业率最终也将随之跟进。证券市场以及新失业津贴政策等主要指标都预示着经济的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我们需要逐步恢复经济，”巴拉克•奥巴马在就业数据发布的第二天（10 月 3 日）承认说。雪上加霜的是，劳动统计局表示，截至今年 5 月，美国经济比预想的进一步减少了 82.4 万个职位。这使得经济衰退造成的总失业人数达到了 800万，占劳动力的 5.8%。如果经济停止进一步恶化，那这将是自二战以来最严重的经济衰退——其损失超过了1948 年所记载的 GDP 的 5%。
The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic. More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist. Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.
更大的问题在于，就业一旦增加，它仍有可能持续疲软。根据杜克大学及《CFO Magazine》杂志（与《The Economist》同属一家公司）财务长在 9 月的一份报告，超过半数的公司表示即使其人员编制有所回升，但在2012 年之前不会回到衰退前的水平。共有 43%的公司计划在未来的 12 个月中继续裁减人手。
Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy. These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year. More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.
奥巴马先生和他的顾问们正考虑新的经济提振措施，但其规模将不及今年 7870 亿美元的刺激计划，后者于明年年底之前将不遗余力的不断向经济注入资金。可能性更大的是，他将延续刺激方案中的某些条款，如下岗职工失业津贴扩面以及健康保险补助等。
The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire. But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th. Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat. This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”. It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day. No one said his job was easy.
“旧车换现金”计划结束所带来的汽车销量下降预示了在诸如购房贷款等刺激措施期满结束后经济所将经历的退缩症状。但是，如果继续实行此类措施，那将会为 9 月 30 日截止的本财政年带来预计高达 14 亿美元的财政赤字。选民们对未来源源不断的财政赤字忧心忡忡，甚至是奥巴马先生的自由派支持者都在火上浇油。本周，众议院议长南希•佩洛西表示，征收增值税应该 “提上日程”。增值税迟早会付诸实施。然而，过早的出台此类税收将有可能阻碍经济恢复，同时，征收新税将会为总统的劲敌们提供反击机会。大家都知道，奥巴马先生过得不容易。
（五）
Signs of economic cheer 经济振奋之征兆
The sun also rises
太阳照常升起
Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition
The economy may be pulling out of recession but unemployment is still surprisingly high. Celebrations should be delayed 虽然美国经济可能正从衰退中抽身而出，但是失业率仍然居高不下，庆祝理应押后。
WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair. In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %. The president pleaded for the passage of a massive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier. Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed. A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.
在早前的 2 月份，就职数周的奥巴马总统到访了印第安娜州的埃尔德哈特。总统此行笼罩着一层阴郁的气氛，因为在此前的十二个月当中，当地的失业率达到了 18.3%，是原来的三倍还多。总统随即恳求通过大规模财政刺激方案，并坚持说，“绝不能坐以待毙。”8 月 5 日，当再次来到埃尔德哈特时总统心情愉悦了一些，他表示本地工厂正在“恢复生机。” 几天之前，他已经宣布了经济已比预期有“显著好转”的消息。
Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s recession appears to be coming to an end. On July 31st the government reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate. Much of that decline reflected business’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory. Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.
奥巴马的好精神是有根有据的，因为美国的衰退似乎正趋于结束。7 月 31 号的政府报告中指出，第二季度的国内生产总值虽然收缩，但仅为年率收缩 1%。而此收缩很大程度上反映了暂时闲置工厂和工人，用存货交付订单的商业决策。现在存货已经消耗殆尽，恢复生产势在必行。
The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%. An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years. Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production. Sales of existing houses have risen. Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.
现有的很多 7 月份数据都为之前的预期--本季度 GDP 将会增长 3%，提供了有力支持。制造业活跃指数提升到了 8 月份以来最高，制造商报告说新订单增长活跃，达到两年来最佳水平；汽车销量飙升 15%，按年率计达 1,120 万辆，制造商也正在加大生产；现房的销售量有所提升。就连备受折磨的埃尔德哈特也有喜讯传来：在 8 月 4 号，一个名为 Dometic 的游艺车部件供应商说，在本地刺激因素的帮助下，公司将在本市增添 240个工作岗位。
Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery. In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest. More important was last autumn’s massive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stress tests. These stopped the spiral of declining asset prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a recession into a depression.
为了刺激经济复苏，奥巴马总统和他的助手们马不停蹄地投入到了 7870 亿美元的财政刺激计划中。事实上，到目前为止这个刺激计划似乎贡献平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融体系的大规模公有资本注入，提供给金融体系的大量贷款和贷款担保，以及今年春季的银行压力测试却发挥了更大作用。这些措施阻止了急剧下滑的资产价格、信贷退出和银行倒闭，将经济从衰退滑向大萧条的危急关头中拉了回来。
One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.
最振奋人心的消息莫过于在 4 月到 5 月之间 S&P/Case-Shiller （美国房价的领先衡量标准）20 大城市房价指数仅下跌 0.2%，是两年来最小幅度。稳定的房价对减少贷款拖欠会起到奇效，还可以支撑银行的资产负债表，起到恢复信贷流动的作用。
Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds
to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.
消息有好有坏，奥巴马总统的支持率虽然仍然算高，但是正处于下滑状态，部分原因应归咎于并无好转的就业形势（就业是一项最为重要的单一经济基准），在经济好转的前提下这样的就业形势着实令人吃惊。经济学家亚瑟欧坤在十九世纪六十年代捕捉到，失业率与经济增长有关并通常随之做出反应。但是在此次衰退中，失业率的上升幅度远比欧坤法则的众多公式推导出的幅度大的多。
The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.
上周公布的 GDP 修改数据可以解释一些不符之处。修改数据显示自 2007 年底 GDP 累计下降 3.7%，可堪比发生在 1957 到 58 年自大萧条以来最严重的衰退（修改前的数据显示下降仅为 2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的经济学家迈克尔▪费拉里说，按照欧坤法则预测第二季度的失业率应仅为 8.6%，而实际的失业率达到平均9.3%。
Several factors are at work. Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed. The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.
成因存在于几方面。扩大的失业保险收益鼓励着一些人继续寻找工作而不是彻底退出劳动大军。根据美联储消息，这部分人口大约占失业率的 0.5%。做了财富切除手术的人们更可能选择找工作而不是退休或回家带孩子。
And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls. Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch. Others may simply be more pessimistic about an eventual recovery. Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins. Robe...
